Mar 12 2009
Semiconductor and semiconductor equipment markets are falling off a cliff (like the economy) and will mirror 2001, according to the report “The Global Market for Equipment and Materials for IC Manufacturing,” recently published by The Information Network, a New Tripoli, PA-based market research company.
Comparison between Leading Indicators and Semiconductor Equipment Revenues
“Our leading indicators, which accurately forecasts semiconductor equipment inflection points, indicate that there will be no upturn through June 2009,” noted Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network. “Moreover, we are forecasting a 41% decrease in semiconductor equipment revenues, greater than the 32% drop in 2001.”
The equipment revenues will be worse in 2009 than in 2001 because of a paradigm shift in equipment purchases as illustrated in Figure 2. A leading factor in the divergence between semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sales since 2002 is the growth of the 300mm wafer market.
Our metrics also indicate that Semiconductor sales will drop 32% in 2009, the same as in 2001.
“We have been using these indicators since 2000 and they have proven to highly quantitative metrics in every forecast we have given, and in nearly every given year we have not had to change our forecast midstream,” added Dr. Castellano.