May 19 2005
Australia's CSIRO has developed a powerful computer model which could become a fundamental part of the high pressure $7 billion per annum National Electricity Market.
At the moment, generator companies bid on a daily basis to supply electricity wholesalers, but their main challenge is predicting patterns of demand.
Now, CSIRO's NEMSIM (the National Electricity Market Simulator) uses computer simulated 'agents' to represent power generating companies, network service providers, retail companies and a market regulator.
With wholesale electricity prices fluctuating from $10 per megawatt hour up to $10,000, having a clearer picture of future price trajectories - as well as supply options and demand trends - has the potential to save companies millions of dollars.
NEMSIM has been made possible by advances in the science of simulation and learning algorithms, where computers learn from previous events and scenarios.
It was developed by scientists within CSIRO's Energy Transformed Flagship, including researchers from CSIRO Manufacturing and Infrastructure Technology, CSIRO Atmospheric Research and Swinburne University of Technology.
"Companies will be able to explore energy supply and demand scenarios for timeframes as short as a few days and as long as thirty years," says project leader, Dr George Grozev.
"For example, the software could show how more active demand management could reduce price spikes by spreading peak load demands."
The software treats each of the 90 market participants in the electricity market as being uniquely intelligent, making operational and strategic decisions using the individual information available to them.
The software can generate reports and graphs on supply, demand, spot prices, contract prices, investment decisions, and greenhouse gas emissions.
For additional information: 'CSIRO gives energy generator companies the edge' Fact Sheet.
http://www.csiro.com.au