Oct 31 2012
Despite the economic slowdown, MEPS expects world steel production to reach 1550 million tonnes this year - a 1.9 percent increase on the 2011 outturn. Further gains are anticipated next year.
MEPS envisages that steelmaking in the European Union will decline by 4.5 percent in 2012. Regional producers continue to restrict supply in response to weak demand caused by the fragile economic situation.
Steel manufacturing in the rest of Europe is projected at 153.7 million tonnes in 2012 - a rise of 1.3 percent, year-on-year. Turkish steel output continues to show strong expansion. Growth in Russia will compensate for declines elsewhere in the CIS.
Crude steel output in North America is forecast at 121.8 million tonnes in 2012. Following a strong start to the year, mills are now trimming their capacity utilisation.
MEPS believes South American raw steel production will decline by 2.5 percent in 2012 to just above 47 million tonnes. Imports have taken a greater share of local markets.
Steel production in the Middle East is projected to increase by almost 8 percent, compared with the outturn in the previous twelve months as new installations lift output. In contract, a decline is foreseen in Africa.
Chinese crude steel manufacturing is predicted to be 750 million tonnes this year. Using the official published figure, MEPS would estimate the outturn at 715 million tonnes. However, this figure is believed to be understated by at least 35 million tonnes.
Raw material supply disruptions continue to constrain Indian steel manufacturing. Consequently, output is likely to grow by just 3 percent in 2012, compared with the previous year. Japanese steel production is expected to be little changed this year following a decline in 2011. South Korean output should be a record high figure in 2012 - although the rise will be fairly modest following the surge witnessed in the previous twelve month period.