Dec 11 2008
NanoMarkets, a leading industry analyst firm based here, today announced it has released an updated analysis of the thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) markets. The firm projects that after a few lean years in 2009 and 2010 for the TFPV business higher growth rates will return in 2011. The firm’s new analysis and forecast projects revenues of $4.6 billion in 2011 that will grow to just over $14 billion in 2015. Additional details about the report are available at www.nanomarkets.net.
Key Insights:
According to NanoMarkets, several factors are combining to make the near-term prospects for TFPV less rosy than had once been hoped. The global economic situation is having wide ranging impacts on the thin-film solar business. The recession in the construction industry will dampen demand for solar panels in 2009 and 2010, depressed oil prices will make it harder to make the case for solar and other forms of alternative energies and competition for capital will limit funding for R&D. Furthermore, the shortage of crystalline silicon that was one of the initial drivers for TFPV has been resolved. Add in the capacity that is coming on line to meet expected demand and the market certainly has factors to overcome.
Nonetheless, NanoMarkets does not believe that the thin-film solar business will evaporate. The unique combination of flexibility, low weight and low cost promised by TFPV will enable the technology to continue to penetrate the solar market as a whole. First Solar has already demonstrated how commercially successful its thin-film CdTe cell technology can be and NanoMarkets also expects to see a major ramp up in CIGS solar panels in the early 2011 timeframe. Indeed, as CIGS begins to fulfill its mission of combining high efficiencies with all the advantages of TFPV, NanoMarkets expects firms that are now focused on other materials platforms to switch to CIGS.